“A Chilling reminder of times that we all hoped had gone by”
The current conflict in Georgia is worryingly familiar, and a result of a resurgent Russia.
The title of this article comes from an interview with the Foreign Secretary David Miliband. When a major event happens in world I always look to see his quotes on the press, not because he is the Foreign Secretary, but because he has an uncanny ability to sum up the situation in a sentence or two. The crisis in South Ossetia has unfolded with the same media intrusion as any other war, journalists dashing to and fro desperate to find more explosions or screaming people to fill our screens to enthral us for another bulletin. This war however has been quite different from other television wars in the past, for one thing it seems like watching a dodgy film late at night, and you can’t quite shake the feeling that you’ve seen it all before. In a sense at least we have, the Russia of 2008 is almost a carbon copy of the USSR, although a little smarter and a bit more media savvy. Like one of those ugly people who go on a make-over show, sure they’ve got new clothes and look a bit prettier, but underneath they’re still the same person.
The sense of Déjà Vu regarding modern Russia has came into its own as Vladimir Putin took over as President, since then things have started to look awfully familiar. One of the first acts of Putin as President in December 2000 was to change the National Anthem of Russia from the post 1990 tune composed by Glinka to the Soviet anthem used from 1944 onwards. Since then things have steadily slipped back into the old USSR ways, although without the need for a sluggish and unworkable Communist economy. Nearly 20 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, I doubt that the Metropolitan Police thought that they would have to investigate the suspected murder of a spy in London, or that the RAF would be scrambling Tornadoes to intercept Russian long-range bombers to prevent them entering British airspace on a regular basis, or where MI5 is reporting that numbers of Russian Agents working in Britain are at “Cold War Levels”.
The Georgian people are not taking any chances with the Russian Army; this is not the first time that Russian soldiers have marched into Georgia. This is the second Russian invasion in a century and the last time the Russians came, they didn’t leave. It’s not surprising when you look at the similarities between the Russia of the Soviet era and the Russia of today. Putin is beginning to look more and more like the iron leader of the motherland. Despite Putin stepping down as President of Russia and taking the ‘lower’ position of Prime Minister, Russians and the world can be under no doubt as to who is really in charge. Whilst Putin attended the Olympic Games opening ceremony, and then went to South Ossetia to visit residents there, Medvedev stayed in Moscow. Putin’s loathing of Georgia’s current regime is clear, and over the past few years relations between the nations have soured significantly. Other former Communist nations that have angered the Kremlin in the past, such as the Ukraine are watching the events in Georgia nervously.
At the time of writing this article, the Russian Armed forces are suspected to have been involved in the destruction of NATO built Georgian military facilities, including the sinking of Georgian ships. This twist in the tale provides us with an even more worrying future in Georgia. It would seem that the Russians are attempting to neuter the Georgian Armed forces to prevent further military action in South Ossetia in the short term; in the long term it is likely that NATO will attempt to rebuild these facilities and strengthen the Georgian Military. Any attempt to increase armaments in Georgia will result in harsh criticism and perhaps hard-line diplomacy from Russia, further frosting relations between the west and Moscow. This level of long term planning by the Kremlin can be viewed as a hint to a longer period of bullish foreign policy from Russia towards the west, and will produce a much more challenging diplomatic climate in the future.
Whilst Miliband was right to call it a ‘Chilling reminder of times gone by’, it is difficult to see how these times ever went away. Russian Communism is dead and so too is the inferior economy that eventually lead to the death of the Soviet Union. Modern Russia still has the same military strength and iron leadership as the Soviet era, just without the economic Achilles heel. What is for certain is that this Russia is has the confidence to push their wishes through the international sphere, which should be a grave concern to the west. The US and the EU have been muted in their criticisms of Russian actions over the past fortnight, favouring a more cautious approach. Plenty of words have been said, but precious little action has been taken, with the US favouring token gestures of support such as humanitarian aid, or flying Georgian troops back to their homeland to fight Russia. This softer line of foreign policy could be the future of relations with a Russia which is resurgent, stronger and more confident of its aims; and perhaps more importantly the means by which those aims are achieved.
