Time for Brown to see yellow
So far Gordon Brown’s government has mostly been characterized by political inertia. The failed attempt at a snap general election, the 10p tax fiasco and the hesitation over fuel poverty measures all resulted in a steadily increasing backlash against him and his government. The historic by-election defeat in Glasgow East in July to the Scottish National Party was an unwelcome addition to that.
The death of John McDougall, Labour MP for Glenrothes in Fife, this week, is even worse. This is not only because McDougall, who sufferered from mesothelioma – a cancer caused by asbestos – was Brown’s personal friend. McDougall, a former boilermaker and Fife council leader, also became Brown’s key Scottish ally at Westminster supporting Brown on issues such as the 42-day terrorist detention plan. McDougall was elected to Parliament in 2001 as MP for Central Fife and returned as MP for Glenrothes in 2005 after the alternations to the Westminster constituency boundary system.
McDougall belonged to a dying generation of staunch Labour loyalists prepared to champion social democracy and the rights of the underprivileged at all costs. He pioneered free travel for the elderly and instituted leading education initiatives such as nursery education for three and four-year olds. Having tirelessly campaigned for the miners’ rights in the 1980s and to create jobs as Fife faced the terminal decline in shipbuilding in the 1990s, McDougall constantly kept the Labour party in touch with its working class grass roots. 
However, Gordon Brown’s government has been repeatedly accused of ignoring the grass roots. Although financial analysts describe the volatile commodity prices and deteriorating economic growth as external shocks out of the government’s control, many highlight the government’s inaction in dealing with the impact of these shocks on the UK population – the rising cost of living.
The effect of this inactivity was Labour’s defeat in Glasgow East where the rising cost of living was a key issue. John Mason (SNP) overturned Labour’s 13,507 majority with a 22% swing. This was a clear message to Brown’s government and the Labour party – in its ten years in power Labour lost touch with its constituents. It failed Glasgow East, one of Britain’s poorest areas where 26% are chronically unemployed and 46% live in council housing.
The SNP leader Alex Salmond campaigned with John Mason while Gordon Brown complacently sent junior ministers to support his candidate Margaret Curran. This shows that Brown continuously ignores the real problems of Labour’s core supporters in Scotland and the UK, which could be dangerous for Labour, his government and the UK generally.
Unlike Labour, the SNP can claim a successful track record in Scotland since it formed its minority government in the Scottish devolved administration at Holyrood in 2007. Salmond quickly used the Glasgow East victory to highlight the divergence between SNP’s improving government at Holyrood and Labour’s deteriorating government at Westminster, which still directly affects Scotland in many ways.
Buoyed by Glasgow East, the SNP is likely to use the momentum. This could boost the SNP’s chances of winning the impending Glenrothes by-election, likely to take place after the Westminster recess this autumn. The SNP needs a 17% swing to overturn Labour’s current 10,664 majority. That Glenrothes borders Brown’s own constituency, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, adds even more significance to the Glenrothes result. Should the SNP win, Brown would be the only remaining Labour MP in Fife.
Another seat for the SNP at Westminster also means that the SNP edges closer to achieving Scottish independence, which Salmond plans to facilitate by holding a referendum in 2010. Although the majority of Scots favour an extension of competencies at Holyrood, a gain in Glenrothes could allow Salmond to convince this majority that independence is a viable option. Salmond’s task would be much easier if Labour lost just half of its 38 Scottish Westminster seats to the SNP at the next General Election, as Tuesday’s poll, commissioned by The Times, suggests.
After David Miliband’s recent leadership challenge Brown’s government is already seriously vulnerable. While further damaging it and the Labour party, any future SNP gains at Westminster would strengthen Salmond and may potentially destroy the prosperous Anglo-Scottish Union, instituted in 1707, and the UK in its entirety.
Despite Friday’s poll on epolitix.com, a leading UK online policy communication platform, confirming Brown’s likely survival as prime minister until the next election, Brown, his government and party cannot afford to be self-satisfied. With Labour’s Westminster majority already at 63, its lowest since 1997, John McDougall’s death is an urgent call to quick, coherent but drastic action.
