The Biden Effect
I wasn’t alive when ‘Who shot JR?’ fever gripped the US, but at least I will be able to tell my grandchildren that I do remember the intrigue and speculation of ‘Who will Obama pick?’ The suspense was building inexorably here at Obama headquarters in Chicago, and when Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana reveals that they had not been chosen as Barack Obama’s running mate, all indicators pointed to Senate veteran Joe Biden of Delaware. Then CNN reported that the Secret Service was on its way to Biden’s home in Wilmington and that a chartered flight was on its way from Chicago to Delaware, so all bets were off.
Media coverage of such events can be speculative to the point of being far-fetched. I would not have been surprised had CNN, Fox News et al analysed what Senator Obama and his family had eaten for dinner on Friday night in a search for indicators: soy beans would obviously point to The First State. But CNN pulled off something of a coup by forcing the Obama campaign to send out texts and e-mails to supporters earlier than planned: my cellphone buzzed at 3am to inform me that I would henceforth be working on the ‘Obama-Biden’ campaign. Later that day, I was swept up by a wave of feverish enthusiasm in Springfield, Illinois as both Senator Obama and Senator Biden held their first campaign rally outside the Old State Capitol. The Obamas and the Bidens certainly make a telegenic combination. But more importantly, Barack Obama will be hoping that having Joe Biden as a running mate will help to dissipate a developing anxiety about his own relative inexperience.
Joe Biden was first elected to the Senate in 1972, when Obama was just 11 years old. It was the year that Richard Nixon was re-elected to the presidency and the Watergate break-ins of that summer would become the fire ship that destroyed his administration. Biden ran in the 1988 Democratic presidential primaries and was also a candidate in this year’s contest. In British political circles, he is perhaps most famous for the accusation that he plagiarised a Neil Kinnock speech, a charge that induced his withdrawal from his first presidential primary contest. As Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden will help to counter McCain’s advantage in the field of foreign affairs. But some critics have opined that the choice of Biden is an implicit acceptance of weakness by the Obama camp, potentially causing Obama to be perceived as a foreign policy lightweight. The Obama campaign has sought to use McCain’s support for the Iraq war as a noose with which to hang the Arizona senator, and the latter’s refusal to countenance a timetable for withdrawal leaves him looking isolated. Senator Obama’s opposition to the war was the springboard to his success, but decreasing levels of violence in Iraq could appear to vindicate McCain’s support for the troop surge. Incidentally, Biden also supported the invasion of Iraq, but has since regretted casting his senate vote accordingly.
Many thought that Senator Obama might pick a running mate who could help him win a key state. Tim Kaine and Evan Bayh were two frontrunners who could have bolstered efforts to win Virginia and Indiana, respectively. Moreover, some commentators have observed that one has to go back to Franklin D. Roosevelt for the last time the Democrats won a presidential election without a southerner on the ticket. However, it is worth remembering that Al Gore did not carry his home state of Tennessee in 2000, nor did John Edwards carry North Carolina four years ago. It is more likely that the western states and Midwest will be the key battlegrounds this time around. And even if Obama carries states like Virginia and North Carolina, it will be because of a high African-American turnout coupled with strong support amongst urban professionals who have migrated southwards. Moreover, Senator Biden’s Pennsylvania roots could bolster the appeal of the ticket amongst blue-collar voters in swing Rust Belt states. It will be very interesting to see the effect of Biden on Obama. Certainly, he could prove to be a formidable foreign policy mentor to Obama, should he become president.
Just hours of Friday night’s official announcement, the McCain campaign released footage of Joe Biden’s primary contest remarks that Obama was not yet ready to be president. This was classic pro forma politics and it is unlikely to have any major impact on voters. Senator Clinton’s kitchen sink strategy during the primaries provided more ammunition for the McCain campaign, and Democratic strategists are keeping their fingers crossed ahead of the former First Lady’s speech in Denver this evening.
The Obama campaign has had a disconcerting month and John McCain has been making something of a comeback in the polls. The Democrats will be hoping for a major convention bounce before the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St Paul next week, and the Obama campaign must use the Convention to define the Illinois Senator in the living rooms of America. Labor Day is on the horizon and it is time for the Democrats to go back on the offensive. Senator Obama has set himself against the wind of negative campaigning and it is therefore difficult for him to go hard negative against John McCain. But the rapier wit of Joe Biden could prove to be highly valuable, as the Delaware Senator has the ability to slice an opponent with a smile on his face. There are only 70 days until D-Day and both armies have their fingers on triggers. Let battle commence.
