The Scottish Lib Dems - Irrelevant or King-Makers?
Two weeks ago, Tavish Scott was elected leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, receiving 59% of the vote to 21.3% for Ross Finnie and 17.9% for Mike Rumbles. What does this tell us? Is it a ringing endorsement of current Lib Dem strategy north of the border? Maybe. Is it more that Scott had the most high profile campaign, and the backing of most of the key figures in Scotland? Probably. It was a victory that suggested a triumph for the establishment within the party, but one which has the potential to reignite their flagging fortunes north of the border.
The election of a new leader invariably heralds a new beginning, and this one certainly needs to. The Scottish Lib Dems are currently in danger of becoming irrelevant and slipping into obscurity. The refusal to negotiate a coalition deal with the Scottish National Party after the 2007 Holyrood elections was a strategic mistake for the party, from which they have never recovered. Tavish Scott was a key figure in persuading Nicol Stephen not to even talk to the SNP. This decision was taken in opposition to the SNP’s commitment to a referendum on independence, something to which the Lib Dems are strongly opposed. The decision also came despite many areas of mutual agreement on policy, including action on climate change, the introduction of elected health boards and the replacement of council tax with a local income tax.
The Lib Dems could still have played an important role as power brokers, given the SNP’s minority status. However, this has not proved to be the case, with Nicol Stephen opting instead to pursue a strategy of constructive opposition. This did bring some plaudits and by all accounts, his performances against Alex Salmond in First Minister’s Questions were good, probing, and significantly better than Wendy Alexander’s. However, the Liberal Democrats have conceded the advantage to the Conservatives. The role of power broker has often been filled by the Tories, who under Annabelle Goldie are having something of a mini-resurgence, receiving considerable credit for working with the SNP on issues of mutual interest. Even the Greens, with all of two MSPs have played this role at times. This is the position the Lib Dems have failed to take, but is the one they should strive for and the one they must take if they are to make themselves relevant to Scottish politics again.
The Lib Dems’ share of the vote in Scottish opinion polls is declining, although it appears to be holding steady in those areas in which the party holds Westminster seats. A wipe out at the next general election remains unlikely. However, their chances of progression and of ensuring that they hold everything they currently have, are weakened by the current strategy of opposition for opposition’s sake.
Tavish Scott was perhaps the key figure in pushing the party away from co-operation with the SNP and, ironically, he is now the man with the opportunity to bring the parties closer together on the issues that matter to both. The recent moves he has been making suggest that he has figured this out. The co-operation between the Lib Dems and the SNP over local income tax is a step in the right direction and although the Lib Dems want the tax set locally by each council, rather than the flat-rate advocated by the SNP, Lib Dem Federal Leader Nick Clegg indicated whilst campaigning in Glenrothes this week that a deal was close.
If an agreement is successfully reached, it will have marked the first step on the road to political rehabilitation for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland. There are other areas of potential co-operation, like health, education and climate change, and Scott must take every opportunity to work with the SNP to deliver Liberal Democrat priorities. He should not co-operate with them on everything, though. The SNP are a centre-left party, not a liberal party, and there are plenty of areas of disagreement between the two, not least the illiberal proposals to increase the legal age to buy alcohol from 18 to 21. But at the same time, the Lib Dems cannot continue to pass up the opportunity to work with the SNP to achieve its goals. Of the 13 Westminster seats in Scotland where the Lib Dems are best placed to win in an election, 10 of them are held by Labour and four of them have majorities of less than 3,500. If the SNP continue to ride high and the Lib Dems fall down as a result, these seats, even against an unpopular Labour government become increasingly unwinnable. The party can ride on the crest of the SNP’s wave on many issues, which will elevate them above the rest of the opposition in the Scottish Parliament. This is the only way that the party can continue to remain relevant to people’s lives in Scotland and the only way that the party can avoid slipping back into obscurity as Scotland’s fourth party.
